Jagmeet Singh’s NDP Gains Momentum but Faces Tough Battle Against Conservative Surge
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP) appears to be rising in national popularity, possibly becoming the second most popular party in Canada. However, this newfound support might be a double-edged sword. With Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives on track for a commanding majority, the NDP and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are left scrambling for what remains of voter support.
Polling analyst Philippe Fournier from 338Canada.com suggests that “the Conservatives are cruising toward a crushing majority in Ottawa,” forcing both the NDP and Liberals into a tight race for second place.
Traditionally, progressive voters have shifted toward the Liberals to block a Conservative victory. But with Poilievre’s win looking increasingly likely, such strategic voting may no longer play a significant role.
Jagmeet Singh’s leadership has been marked by key decisions that have boosted his party’s profile. He initially supported the Liberal minority government in exchange for policies like a national dental care program and early steps toward pharmacare. However, he ended the supply-and-confidence agreement a month ago, a move that coincided with rising support for the NDP.
Recent polling data shows the NDP and Liberals neck-and-neck. A Mainstreet poll puts the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 19%, while a Nanos poll has both parties tied at 22%. Abacus Data shows the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 19%. All polls show the Conservatives far ahead, with support between 42% and 44%.
The battle between the NDP and Liberals is particularly fierce in British Columbia and Ontario. In B.C., the NDP leads the Liberals (27% to 15%), but both trail the Conservatives at 48%. Similarly, in Ontario, the Conservatives dominate with 46%, while the Liberals and NDP trail closely behind, with 22% and 20%, respectively.
In Quebec, the NDP is unlikely to repeat its 2011 success, as the Bloc Québécois continues to perform strongly. In fact, the Bloc could even emerge as the official opposition if the Liberals and NDP lose enough seats to the Conservatives.
As the next election approaches, the political landscape is uncertain. Pressure is mounting on Justin Trudeau, with speculation that he might step down or call for a swift leadership race. Meanwhile, the NDP is positioning itself as the primary alternative to the Liberals, but both parties are in danger of being overshadowed by the Conservatives’ rising dominance.
